【解读“十三五”】金融服务

概况 Summary
过去十年，中国的金融系统经历了重大转型（并在转型期间呈指数增长）。然而，与所有金融系统一样，中国的金融系统依然存在进一步发展和改进的空间。
China’s financial system has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade (and has grown exponentially during that time). However, as is the case with all financial systems there is still room for further development and improvement.
中国十三五规划金融服务方面的大量内容集中在深化金融改革方面。覆盖的领域包括：
Much of China’s 13th Five Year Plan for financial services focusses on further financial reforms. Areas covered include:
进一步对外国发行机构和投资者开放中国金融市场
Further opening-up of China’s financial markets to foreign issuers and investors
稳步推进人民币国际化
Steadily moving forward with RMB internationalisation
降低杠杆率（通过促进股权融资实现）的同时提高直接融资（即由资本市场而非银行提供融资）比重
Increasing the proportion of direct financing (ie financing provided by the capital markets as opposed to banks) while reducing leverage (by promoting equity financing)
创造条件实施股票发行注册制（关于制度具体实施的时间点和方式仍有很大不确定性和预期）
Creating the conditions for implementing a registration-based IPO regime (there is still much uncertainty and anticipation regarding the timing and manner in which this regime will be introduced)
推进股债相结合的融资方式、高收益债券、金融衍生品和其他创新金融产品发展
Promoting hybrid instruments, high-yield bonds, derivatives and other innovative financial instruments
建立绿色金融体系，包括绿色贷款、绿色债券、绿色发展基金和其他创新绿色金融产品
Establishing a green financial system consisting of green loans, green bonds, a green development fund and other innovative green financial products
改善金融服务市场准入并鼓励更多私营部门投资（国有企业是中国金融服务部门的主体。例如，在银行领域，目前只有几家私有银行。）
Improving market access for financial services and encouraging more private sector investment (China’s financial services sector is dominated by state-owned enterprises. For example, in the banking sector, there are currently only a handful of privately owned banks.)
加强宏观审慎政策框架和金融消费者保护
Enhancing the macro prudential regulatory framework and consumer financial protection
进一步管理对包括P2P借贷在内的互联网金融发展。
Further regulating the development of internet-based finance, including peer-to-peer lending.
政府对金融领域规划的许多元素是对实体经济规划的补充。例如，十三五规划强调了金融服务支持包括创新和互联网+、绿色发展、人口结构变化和“走出去”战略等多个方面的必要。从更广的意义上来说，金融服务还要支持中国经济转型，转向服务业与消费对拉动经济起到更大作用的、更平衡的经济。
Many of the elements of the government’s plan for financial services complement its plans for the real economy. For example, the Plan emphasises the need for financial services to support, among other things, innovation and Internet Plus, green development, demographic changes and China’s “go global” strategy. More broadly, financial services are to also support China’s transition towards a more balanced economy where services and consumption play a greater role in driving growth.
然而，尽管政府依然致力于金融改革，政府同样（甚至更加）关注金融稳定和防范系统性风险（比如普遍的信贷、市场波动和流动性危机的发展），尤其在这些风险可能波及实体经济并导致经济社会不稳定的情况下。改革实施的性质、程度和节奏可能与国内国际金融市场内部和经济大形势的风险水平紧密相关。
However, while the government remains committed to financial reforms, it is equally (if not more so) concerned about financial stability and the prevention of systemic risks (such as the development of widespread credit, market volatility and liquidity risks), particularly where they may spread to the real economy and result in economic and social instability. The nature, extent and pace of implementation of the reforms could well be linked to the level of risk within the financial markets and broader economy, both domestically and internationally.
指标 Targets
与有的改革领域不同，十三五规划没有为金融服务领域订立明确的量化目标。这很可能是因为金融改革本身是一种质变。此外，金融市场具有不确定性，无法预测，并且越来越多由政府无法控制的因素所推动。
Unlike some areas of reform, the Plan does not expressly set quantitative objectives for the financial services sector. This is likely due to the qualitative nature of the financial reforms. In addition, financial markets are uncertain, unpredictable and increasingly driven by factors outside of the government’s control.
充满机遇的土地？ The land of opportunity?
国际企业在华机遇 Opportunities for international businesses in China
十三五规划的有效实施很可能更方便海外金融机构在华建立或拓展业务、为业务获取当地或跨境融资以及向范围更广的本地和国际客户提供更多产品和服务。
Effective implementation of the Plan is likely to make it easier for overseas financial institutions to set up or expand operations in China, obtain local or cross-border financing for those operations, and offer a broader range of products and services to a wider array of local and international clients.
利用其在更成熟金融市场的经验，我们预期一些跨国金融机构会立足于中国增长中的互联网金融、绿色金融、金融科技、衍生品、债股结合融资和结构性产品市场。此外，海外公司可能会发现，越来越多的自己国内的金融服务供应商愿意并且有能力跟随自己前往中国，通过跨境平台为自己提供综合的产品和服务。
Harnessing their experience in more mature financial markets, we expect to see some overseas financial institutions establishing in China’s growing internet finance, green finance, fintech, derivatives, hybrids and structured products markets. In addition, overseas companies may find that an increasing number of financial services providers “at home” are willing and able to follow them to China, providing them with integrated products and services from a cross-border platform.
与此同时，海外金融机构也可能面临来自拓展自身全球网络和专门知识的中国企业更激烈的竞争。海外金融机构同样会发现，随着其在经济和金融方面的影响持续增加，即使与其他金融市场有所不同，中国在出台为中国经济社会形势量身定做的金融法规和金融监管方面会更加自信。
At the same time, overseas financial institutions may face greater competition from Chinese competitors growing their global networks and expertise. They may also find that as China’s economic and financial influence continues to grow, China will become more confident in setting and policing financial regulations that are tailored to China’s economic and social situation, even if they differ from those in other financial markets.
国内企业在华机遇 Opportunities for local businesses in China
随着中国的金融系统和经济大环境持续对外国投资者和发行机构开放，对中国金融机构提供的金融产品、服务和市场知识的需求会增加。这些金融机构也有机会在绿色金融、金融科技和其他政府大力支持的金融创新领域扮演领导角色。
As China’s financial system and broader economy continues to open up to foreign investors and issuers, there will be greater demand for the financial products, services and market know-how offered by Chinese financial institutions. These institutions also have an opportunity to take the lead in green finance, fintech and other areas of financial innovation that receive strong government support.
作为国际货币，人民币的地位日益重要，中国公司在世界舞台上的影响力也在加大，这也为提供交易和咨询金融服务的中国金融机构增强了竞争力。与此同时，中国金融机构也面临不少挑战，包括经济逆势和经济体中更高的杠杆率。
RMB’s increasing importance as a global currency, along with Chinese companies’ increasing influence on the world stage, may also provide Chinese financial institutions with a competitive edge in the provision of transactional and advisory financial services. At the same time, Chinese financial institutions also face a number of challenges, including economic headwinds as well as higher levels of leverage in the economy.
从规划到实施 From planning to implementation
政府高层的十三五规划建议于2015年10月下旬出版，十三五规划则于2016年3月出版。在建议出版后的几个月，中国金融管理者们已经采取了一些具体步骤以实现规划目标，包括：
The government’s high-level recommendations for setting the Plan were published in late October 2015, while the Plan itself was published in March 2016. In the months since the recommendations were published, Chinese financial regulators have already taken a number of specific steps to further the Plan’s objectives, including:
与汇率相关的改革，使得人民币进入国际货币基金组织特别提款权货币篮子，这是人民币国际化进程中重要的里程碑
Currency-related reforms that led to RMB’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies, marking an important milestone for the internationalisation of RMB
进一步向国外机构投资者和发行机构开放中国国内债券市场（手段是允许其发行熊猫债）
Further opening-up of China’s domestic bond markets to foreign issuers (by allowing them to issue panda bonds – read more about this important development) and foreign institutional investors
金融机构和非金融企业绿色债券方面的政策，标志着建立中国绿色债券市场和绿色金融体系重要的一步
Policies on the issue of green bonds by financial institutions and non-financial enterprises, marking a key step in establishing China’s green bond market and green financial system
分别发布中国金融服务领域如何支持内需消费、发展养老服务和减少贫困的相应指南——这三者都是十三五规划的关键领域。
Separate guidelines on how China’s financial services sector can support domestic consumption, the development of aged care services and the alleviation of poverty – all key focusses of the Plan
包括《证券法》在内的多部重要法律法规正在修订过程中。
A number of key statutes are also in the process of being amended, including the Securities Law.
由于近期股票和货币市场的事件，政府现在更加重视防范和管理系统性风险。在未来五年，为实现推进金融改革和维护金融稳定的双重目标，政策制定者和监管者可能发生分歧。
In light of recent events in the stock and currency markets, the government is now placing greater emphasis on preventing and managing systemic risks. Over the next five years, pursuing the twin goals of advancing financial reform and maintaining financial stability may well pull policymakers and regulators in different directions.